Since the discovery of SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers have described dozens of novel SARS-like viruses (subgenus Sarbecovirus) and host interactions, particularly with bats. Understanding the effects of global climate change on bat distributions is critical for both conservation and public health.
In this study, authors identified 35 bat species with sarbecovirus interactions. Using species occurrences from GBIF and other sources cropped to IUCN range limits, they built ecological niche model ensembles based on environmental variables to map the current potential distributions of the bats.
Seasonal variation in temperature was the most important predictor in the models that strongly affected the distribution of 12 species. Karst (the availability of caves) and precipitation also affected the predicted bat distributions, although for fewer species.
The authors found the highest bat richness in Southeast Asia with 13 species in Myanmar and 12 species in China, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Thailand and Viet Nam. When projecting the models into future climatic scenarios, these patterns remained largely unchanged, but the number of contiguous areas home to 10 or more species increased from 26 to 38.
Overall, most species in the study will likely lose suitable habitat and assemble in concentrated hotspots that shift slightly east. This change might lead to fragmented bat populations and local extinctions, but also bring more bat species into closer contact with human populations.
Combined with increased human encroachment on bat habitats, changes to bat ranges may redistribute and increase risk of sarbecoviral spillover and disease emergence.